Is a Rolex a Good Investment in 2026? What the Numbers Say

The short answer: a Rolex is one of the best ways to own a luxury watch without losing much money, but it is rarely a good investment in the financial sense. Secondary prices are rising again in 2026, yet they remain below their 2022 peak, and the costs of buying, insuring, servicing and selling can quietly erase the gain. Here is what the numbers say.

Have Rolex prices recovered since 2022?

Partly. Bob’s Watches, which tracks its own Rolex sales, reports an average transaction price that peaked at $17,206 in March 2022, fell to $11,751 by December 2022 and stands at about $15,036 in 2026. Its figures are averages of what it sells, so they move with the mix of models. In the twelve months to the first quarter of 2026, Rolex secondary prices rose 7.9%, against 16.2% for Patek Philippe, according to Borro. Chrono24’s Rolex Report, published in August, puts its Rolex price index about 7% higher than a year earlier and about 55% above 2019.

The speculative era is over. After the January price rises, Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts concluded that “the era of widespread flipping” had ended, as WatchPro reported, and the average Rolex premium over retail stood at 9.8% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the same analysts.

Which Rolex models hold their value best?

A small group of steel sports and entry models carries the market. Morgan Stanley’s 2026 value retention figures, as reported by WatchGuys, put the average premium over retail at:

Rolex collection	Average price vs retail
Oyster Perpetual	+34.5%
Daytona	+33.8%
GMT-Master II	+25.4%
Datejust	+7.2%
Sea-Dweller	−21%

The Explorer, Air-King and Day-Date also trade below retail on average, WatchPro notes. Gold has been weaker still: a gold Daytona on Oysterflex was trading at about $34,700 against $42,700 at retail in July, according to Subdial data reported by Bloomberg. A steel Daytona, by contrast, retails at about $16,900 and trades at about $19,500 to $21,000, according to Borro.

How much did Rolex raise prices in 2026?

On January 1, the steel Submariner 124060 rose from $9,500 to $10,050, the GMT-Master II 126710GRNR from $11,300 to $12,000 and the steel Daytona from $16,000 to $16,900, according to Professional Watches. On June 1, Rolex raised gold models by about 5% and two-tone models by about 2.5%, leaving steel unchanged, as Luxury Bazaar reported. Every retail increase narrows the premium a buyer can expect on resale.

What does owning a Rolex really cost?

This is where most “investment” arguments fall apart. US sales tax averages 7.53% when state and local rates are combined, according to the Tax Foundation. Insurance typically costs 1% to 2% of the watch’s value a year, NerdWallet estimates. A Rolex service costs about $800 to $1,600, more for complex or precious-metal models, and Rolex recommends one roughly every ten years, according to Bob’s Watches. When you sell, dealers usually pay 10% to 30% below market, or about 10% to 15% for fast-selling steel models, as WatchPro explains, while Chrono24 charges private sellers a 6.5% commission.

Consider a simple illustration. A steel Submariner bought at $10,050 costs about $10,807 with average sales tax. If clean examples trade at around $11,500, as Everest Bands found in January, a dealer paying 15% below that would offer about $9,775: roughly $1,000 less than you paid, before insurance. You would have enjoyed a Submariner for very little, which is the real case for buying one.

Buy a Rolex because you will wear it for twenty years. If it holds its value along the way, consider that the dividend.

How Rolex became a store of value

Over the long run, the best steel references have rewarded patient owners. Bob’s Watches’ sales data from 2010 to 2025, analysed by Quill & Pad, show average prices up about 506% for the GMT-Master II, 358% for the Daytona and 268% for the Submariner. Those gains came over fifteen years, rose and fell sharply around 2022, and do not predict future returns. Rolex itself has moved closer to the second-hand market: its Certified Pre-Owned programme, launched in 2022, sells authenticated watches through Official Rolex Retailers with a two-year international guarantee.

So, should you buy a Rolex as an investment?

In our view, buy a Rolex because you want to wear it, choose a steel sports or Oyster Perpetual model if resale matters to you, keep the box, papers and service records, and expect to hold it for years. Treat any gain as a bonus rather than a plan. If you are buying pre-owned, read our watchmaker’s pre-owned buying checklist and our guide to buying a pre-owned Rolex online safely.

Frequently asked questions

Do Rolex watches go up in value?

Some do. Many steel sports and Oyster Perpetual models trade above retail, while several collections and many gold models trade below it. Prices also fell sharply after 2022, so gains are not guaranteed.

Which Rolex holds its value best?

On 2026 Morgan Stanley figures, the Oyster Perpetual, Daytona and GMT-Master II carry the highest average premiums over retail.

Is it better to buy a new or pre-owned Rolex?

New gives you the full five-year guarantee but may mean a wait for popular models. Pre-owned is available immediately; Rolex Certified Pre-Owned adds a two-year guarantee at a higher price.

How much does it cost to sell a Rolex?

Dealers typically pay 10% to 30% below market value, and selling privately on Chrono24 carries a 6.5% commission.

Sources: Bob’s Watches · Borro · Chrono24 · WatchPro · WatchGuys · Bloomberg · Professional Watches · Luxury Bazaar · Tax Foundation · NerdWallet · Quill & Pad · Rolex Newsroom